04 March 2006
who will win (and who should win) tomorrow night
so earlier i plugged this blog i read all the time called the oscar igloo. the writers of the site review movies and do oscar predictions and stuff year round. during academy awards season, the slogan of the blog is "it's not about who we want to win. . . it's about who will." and each of the reviewers predicts who will win the major categories, argues who they would choose personally and write about any films or actors that should have been nominated. so that is how i am going to do my predictions for tomorrow. . .
film:
will win. . . bareback. i know some people are arguing that there might be a surprise upset by crash but, for some unimaginable reason, everyone is sort of mystified by the gay cowboi thing. i don't think that ANYONE would argue that this film would be a best picture nominee if it happened to center around two straight people screwing.
should win. . . crash. this is probably the best movie i have seen in the past two years (since lost in translation and master and commander). it is well written, well directed, well acted. total package. i will definitely watch this one dozens of times. i barely managed to watch bareback one time.
should have been nominated. . . well, first of all, neither good night and good luck nor munich have ANY right at all to be in the top five. and even though i will agree that capote and bareback are well done films, they are definitely not the best of the best. i think my top five would have been crash, pride and prejudice, the constant gardener, walk the line and cinderella man
actor:
will win. . . philip seymour hoffman. he was incredible for sure. he is in like every single scene in capote, and it is very difficult acting. i don't think that the oscar should always go to the person who undergoes the biggest transformation a là nicole kidman and charlize theron, but this isn't one of those instances. he will win and deserve it.
should win. . . see above. i have always liked philip seymour hoffman especially in happiness and magnolia. i am glad he is working his way towards more leading man roles. if he doesn't take the award i think it should go to joaquin phoenix, who i don't usually like but who was pretty great as johnny cash. (who shouldn't win? david straithern from good night and good luck. FUCK he was so FUCKING boring!)
should have been nominated. . . it is pretty disappointing that russell crowe didn't got nominated for cinderella man. he would have for sure if this hadn't been the second big boxing movie in two years. also ralph fiennes, as usual, didn't get the attention he deserved, this time for the constant gardener.
actress:
will win. . . it seems that usually the one category that there is almost no contest for is the best actress category and this year follows suit as y'all know. reese witherspoon really MADE walk the line and she will win for sure. she has definitely had to work to be one of the most respected actresses i think. i have always loved her, especially in pleasantville and election, and i am definitely happy for her.
should win. . . i am really torn about this. on the one hand i think reese was really great and i will be happy to see her win, especially because she has done so many great things in the past and this is the first time she is getting real attention. on the other hand, the best performance of the year was probably felicity huffman in transamerica. i don't think too many actresses have the range to do what she did in this movie. i would have to go with her.
should have been nominated. . . along with reese and felicity the third best performance of the year was DEFINITELY joan allen in the upside of anger. she always seems to get the brush off from critics who know that she is awesome but apparently find her easy to ignore. this was a great performance and the biggest oversight from the academy.
supporting actor:
will win. . . if there is any category that is not a foregone conclusion, it is this one, but that doesn't say much. this one will go to paul giamatti and not george clooney even though a lot of people are pulling for the latter. giamatti gave a better, more original performance and deserves to get mentioned after he was inexplicably left off the best actor list last year for sideways.
should win. . . well of the people that are nominated, i would probably go for matt dillon. i have a hard time looking past his entire career o'crap, but he was great in crash and definitely made me feel angry, sad, amazed and empathetic in the course of two hours, which is a pretty cool thing for one character to do. on the other hand, the only reason he got this nom and not one of the other actors is because his character is more dynamically written.
should have been nominated. . . the real person who deserves to win this category is probably terrence howard for crash. he would have been nominated over william hurt if he hadn't also been nominated in the best actor category for hustle & flow. i can't wait to see him later this year in the new musical idlewild.
supporting actress:
will win. . . rachael weisz from the constant gardener. this was a pretty good movie but a pretty boring one overall like most of the other movies nominated this year. she was probably the best thing about the movie, and her character was way more interesting than her on screen husband's played by ralph fiennes, which is why she is getting academy attention and not him. still, she deserves the nomination, and since none of the other nominees are really spectacular or anything, maybe the win.
should win. . . well per the above requisite, this being the weakest category and all. i would go with the most surprising and entertaining performance of the nominees, amy adams in junebug. you have to go see this movie, only because she is so freakin adorable in it. (as a matter of fact, i need to buy this one. i wish i could watch it right now!)
should have been nominated. . . hands down, i think the best supporting actress performance of the year was given by gong li in memoirs of a geisha. as i have said before, this movie wasn't a great work of art. it was a melodramatic chick flick. but gong li was so good at being bad. i can't believe she wasn't nominated. the second best performance, i thought, and one that has been almost entirely ignored was taraji henson in hustle & flow. gawd she made my cry! others who could have been nominated are tilda swinton from the lion, the witch and the wardrobe, and thandie newton from crash.
other categories:
director. . . ang lee will win for bareback, although i can't imagine why. this movie was well acted, terribly written and HORRIBLY directed. once again, STRAIGHT PEOPLE SHOULDN'T MAKE MOVIES ABOUT GAY PEOPLE. who should win? paul haggis from crash of course.
original screenplay. . . this will probably be the only award crash wins, and of course it is the best written film of the year. i hoep paul haggis writes a dozen more films like crash and million dollar baby.
adapted screenplay. . . i can't even believe it but bareback will win this. i just saw that annie proux who wrote the original story has published the like 25 page text for 10$!!!! gawd what a freaking bourgeois pig. this movie is doing as much for gay literature as did the writers of the rosie o'donnell show. capote should win this, even though i don't really care.
song. . . i love all the songs nominated. the kathleen york song from crash is really pretty even though it is kinda boring. the rap theme to hustle & flow is the favorite to win, and i can't wait to see how the hell they are gonna sing it on national tv. still i wish dolly parton's song from the transamerica wins, just because i wanna see her acceptance speech.
documentary. . . it doesn't matter, because everyone knows that grizzly man is by far the best documentary of the year, but it wasn't nominated because of an asinine technicality. ¶ 3/04/2006 11:30:00 PM
so earlier i plugged this blog i read all the time called the oscar igloo. the writers of the site review movies and do oscar predictions and stuff year round. during academy awards season, the slogan of the blog is "it's not about who we want to win. . . it's about who will." and each of the reviewers predicts who will win the major categories, argues who they would choose personally and write about any films or actors that should have been nominated. so that is how i am going to do my predictions for tomorrow. . .
film:
will win. . . bareback. i know some people are arguing that there might be a surprise upset by crash but, for some unimaginable reason, everyone is sort of mystified by the gay cowboi thing. i don't think that ANYONE would argue that this film would be a best picture nominee if it happened to center around two straight people screwing.
should win. . . crash. this is probably the best movie i have seen in the past two years (since lost in translation and master and commander). it is well written, well directed, well acted. total package. i will definitely watch this one dozens of times. i barely managed to watch bareback one time.
should have been nominated. . . well, first of all, neither good night and good luck nor munich have ANY right at all to be in the top five. and even though i will agree that capote and bareback are well done films, they are definitely not the best of the best. i think my top five would have been crash, pride and prejudice, the constant gardener, walk the line and cinderella man
actor:
will win. . . philip seymour hoffman. he was incredible for sure. he is in like every single scene in capote, and it is very difficult acting. i don't think that the oscar should always go to the person who undergoes the biggest transformation a là nicole kidman and charlize theron, but this isn't one of those instances. he will win and deserve it.
should win. . . see above. i have always liked philip seymour hoffman especially in happiness and magnolia. i am glad he is working his way towards more leading man roles. if he doesn't take the award i think it should go to joaquin phoenix, who i don't usually like but who was pretty great as johnny cash. (who shouldn't win? david straithern from good night and good luck. FUCK he was so FUCKING boring!)
should have been nominated. . . it is pretty disappointing that russell crowe didn't got nominated for cinderella man. he would have for sure if this hadn't been the second big boxing movie in two years. also ralph fiennes, as usual, didn't get the attention he deserved, this time for the constant gardener.
actress:
will win. . . it seems that usually the one category that there is almost no contest for is the best actress category and this year follows suit as y'all know. reese witherspoon really MADE walk the line and she will win for sure. she has definitely had to work to be one of the most respected actresses i think. i have always loved her, especially in pleasantville and election, and i am definitely happy for her.
should win. . . i am really torn about this. on the one hand i think reese was really great and i will be happy to see her win, especially because she has done so many great things in the past and this is the first time she is getting real attention. on the other hand, the best performance of the year was probably felicity huffman in transamerica. i don't think too many actresses have the range to do what she did in this movie. i would have to go with her.
should have been nominated. . . along with reese and felicity the third best performance of the year was DEFINITELY joan allen in the upside of anger. she always seems to get the brush off from critics who know that she is awesome but apparently find her easy to ignore. this was a great performance and the biggest oversight from the academy.
supporting actor:
will win. . . if there is any category that is not a foregone conclusion, it is this one, but that doesn't say much. this one will go to paul giamatti and not george clooney even though a lot of people are pulling for the latter. giamatti gave a better, more original performance and deserves to get mentioned after he was inexplicably left off the best actor list last year for sideways.
should win. . . well of the people that are nominated, i would probably go for matt dillon. i have a hard time looking past his entire career o'crap, but he was great in crash and definitely made me feel angry, sad, amazed and empathetic in the course of two hours, which is a pretty cool thing for one character to do. on the other hand, the only reason he got this nom and not one of the other actors is because his character is more dynamically written.
should have been nominated. . . the real person who deserves to win this category is probably terrence howard for crash. he would have been nominated over william hurt if he hadn't also been nominated in the best actor category for hustle & flow. i can't wait to see him later this year in the new musical idlewild.
supporting actress:
will win. . . rachael weisz from the constant gardener. this was a pretty good movie but a pretty boring one overall like most of the other movies nominated this year. she was probably the best thing about the movie, and her character was way more interesting than her on screen husband's played by ralph fiennes, which is why she is getting academy attention and not him. still, she deserves the nomination, and since none of the other nominees are really spectacular or anything, maybe the win.
should win. . . well per the above requisite, this being the weakest category and all. i would go with the most surprising and entertaining performance of the nominees, amy adams in junebug. you have to go see this movie, only because she is so freakin adorable in it. (as a matter of fact, i need to buy this one. i wish i could watch it right now!)
should have been nominated. . . hands down, i think the best supporting actress performance of the year was given by gong li in memoirs of a geisha. as i have said before, this movie wasn't a great work of art. it was a melodramatic chick flick. but gong li was so good at being bad. i can't believe she wasn't nominated. the second best performance, i thought, and one that has been almost entirely ignored was taraji henson in hustle & flow. gawd she made my cry! others who could have been nominated are tilda swinton from the lion, the witch and the wardrobe, and thandie newton from crash.
other categories:
director. . . ang lee will win for bareback, although i can't imagine why. this movie was well acted, terribly written and HORRIBLY directed. once again, STRAIGHT PEOPLE SHOULDN'T MAKE MOVIES ABOUT GAY PEOPLE. who should win? paul haggis from crash of course.
original screenplay. . . this will probably be the only award crash wins, and of course it is the best written film of the year. i hoep paul haggis writes a dozen more films like crash and million dollar baby.
adapted screenplay. . . i can't even believe it but bareback will win this. i just saw that annie proux who wrote the original story has published the like 25 page text for 10$!!!! gawd what a freaking bourgeois pig. this movie is doing as much for gay literature as did the writers of the rosie o'donnell show. capote should win this, even though i don't really care.
song. . . i love all the songs nominated. the kathleen york song from crash is really pretty even though it is kinda boring. the rap theme to hustle & flow is the favorite to win, and i can't wait to see how the hell they are gonna sing it on national tv. still i wish dolly parton's song from the transamerica wins, just because i wanna see her acceptance speech.
documentary. . . it doesn't matter, because everyone knows that grizzly man is by far the best documentary of the year, but it wasn't nominated because of an asinine technicality. ¶ 3/04/2006 11:30:00 PM
