who will win (and who should win) tonight
so who's excited for the big game tonight? although i know i am inevitably going to be disappointed as i watch jennifer hudson ramble on inarticulately about how this award has inducted her into some sort of community or whatever i am still looking forward to the proceedings (and holding out hope that some surprises will creep up and keep the night interesting and **me hoping** hudson-free). here are my choices and final predix:

supporting actor:
will win. . . eddie murphy has been getting most of the buzz lately for his turn as a heroine-addicted motown singer in dreamgirls, but i am going to go out on a limb and say i think he will go home empty-handed tonight. too many people don't like him personally. i am picking alan arkin as the heroine addicted grandpa in little miss sunshine.
should win. . . well, of the five nominees, i will be rooting for jackie earl haley from little children. not only did he gave a crazy-scary performance, but he is a cool comeback story as well, and i am happy for him. still, the person who should win the best supporting actor oscar won't go home with it tonight: jack nicholson in the departed.
my five. . . jackie earl haley, djimon honsou, eddie murphy, jack nicholson and michael sheen (the queen).

supporting actress:
will win. . . as much as i hope it doesn't happen jennifer hudson is definitely going to win this just because people are looking forward to her weepy acceptance speech. although i didn't necessarily dislike her in dreamgirls, she didn't do a whole lot of acting. plus i am not really a fan of her personally, especially some negative things she has said about the gays.
should win. . . adriana barraza. she gives the single best performance of the year. period. watching babel again yesterday, i was even more touched by the emotional plea she offers the border patrol agent at the end of the film. i hate to tell academy members how to do their job but THIS is acting!
my five. . . adriana barraza, rinko kikuchi, cate blanchett (notes on a scandal), meryl streep (the devil wears prada) and catherine o'hara (for your consideration).

actor:
will win. . . i am torn about this one and not very well informed, since i have only seen two of the five films that have nominated actors. most people are predicting forrest whitaker who plays idi amin in the last king of scotland (which i haven't seen). but i wouldn't at all be surprised if peter o'toole wins for venus (which i also haven't seen), since this will probably be his last chance for a non-honorary award. still, my pick is whitaker.
should win. . . with the above-stated caveat in mind, i think leonardo dicaprio should win this category. the question is for which film? i think his acting is superior in blood diamond as opposed to his smaller role in the departed. but with two great performances this year, i definitely think the award should go to leo.
my five. . . leonardo dicaprio (blood diamond), leonardo dicaprio (the departed), will smith, patrick wilson (little children) and matt damon (the good shepherd).

actress:
will win. . . helen mirren has won every single precursor award to the oscars. not a single one of the other nominees has beat her thus far. so it would be absolutely crazy if she didn't win tonight. still, this is probably the acting category with the best collection of performances, and it is a hard pick for me.
should win. . . mirren is dead on in her portrayal of queen elizabeth, no doubt. but, for me, it just isn't as exciting a performance as some of the other nominees. my pick is kate winslet for little children. besides being one of my favorite actresses as well as the fact that she keeps losing these things, she is just great in this movie. for someone who has had so many memorable roles in her short career, it is amazing how she just melts into this character and makes you forget about all of the other ones. it is a nuanced and, most importantly, exciting performance.
my five. . . kate winslet, helen mirren, dame judi, ellen page (hard candy) and ivana baquero (pan's labyrinth).

director:
will win. . . this one is scorsese's to lose, although i don't think anyone would be necessarily surprised if he did lose it. honestly, i think that if and when scorsese wins the oscar for the departed, it isn't as much for this movie as it is for his entire body of work. and, if this is the case, he certainly deserves it.
should win. . . like the supporting actor category, i don't think the person who truly deserves to win this is one of the nominated five. of the five possibilities tonight, i go back and forth between gonzález-iñárritu and clint eastwood, and i would be satisfied if either one was crowned winner. however, the director who i think really deserves to win is alfonso cuáron, filmmaker behind children of men.
my five. . . alfonso cuáron, clint eastwood, alejandro gonzález-iñárritu, martin scorsese and guillermo del toro (pan's labyrinth).

film:
will win. . . it's weird that, this year, best picture seems to be the only category that noone is able or willing to predict. i guess that part of this is fallout from last year's crash upset as well as the dreamgirls nomination upset. the only one of the five nominated films that definitely won't win is the queen. i am picking babel to win. it has a huge cast, people in the industry seem to like it, and it won the golden globe.
should win. . . my pick for best pic hasn't changed all oscar season. i loved babel. there really isn't a single bad thing i can say about it, and i have tried to think of something. this is a hard year to pick a favorite, but i have settled on this movie as mine. HOWEVER, just seeing letters from iwo jima last night for the first time, it was fucking AMAZING. i think that if more people in the academy actually saw it, it could be crowned winner tonight, and it would definitely deserve it.
my five. . . babel, letters from iwo jima, blood diamond, little children and pan's labyrinth.

other categories:
original screenplay. . . if little miss sunshine doesn't win best pic (which i don't think it will, despite the buzz) it will probably win here. my pic here would be babel.
adapted screenplay. . . little children, little children, little children! this is such an intelligently written film, the best of the year. but, the departed will definitely win. (i am confounded).
score. . . nobody has mentioned it all awards season, but i was really impressed by the score to pirates of the caribbean: dmc. it might have been my favorite all year. i predict that the score to babel will win the category. of the five, my choice would be the queen.
song. . . my pic would be melissa etheridge's "i need to wake up," from an incovenient truth it is really the only song of the five that i like, so it isn't a hard choice. the fugnasty song "listen" from dreamgirls will win this though. (once again, i am confounded).
cinematography. . . in 20 years i think that one of the things that this year will be remembered for at the movies is the camerawork behind children of men. nothing would upset me more than this movie not winning the cinematography category tonight.
costumes and makeup. . . the costume category is going to be a pretty contentious one i think. marie antoinette, the devil wears prada and dreamgirls are all deserving. my prediction and personal fave would be marie antoinette. makeup should be more open and shut: pan's labyrinth.
documentary. . . an inconvenient truth will win this category. even though i haven't seen the other nominees, i am dubious as to whether truth really deserves the award. even though i enjoyed the movie, my pic would be any of the other five.  ¶ 2/25/2007 03:17:00 PM