21 January 2009
  oscar nominations tomorrow

the oscar nominations are only a few hours away, but the way people are predicting them it probably doesn't even make sense to watch, seeing as how there is little room for surprise at this point. still, something tells me that there is going to be at least one shock tomorrow morning, and i think it could be in the best picture race. slumdog, the dark knight and milk are pretty much assured nominations, but i still think the other two spots are a little more open than most people think. more than likely, the curious case of forrest gump will be nominated, but i do think that there is at least a small contingent of people that acknowledge it as the overhyped rip-off that it is. i think, and i realize i am largely alone on this one, that the film really at risk of being snubbed is frost/nixon. it seems that this movie is already starting to be forgotten, and even if it is good, i don't think there are enough academy members out there that are really seeing stars over it. yeah people like it, but there are other movies they like more. and i wouldn't be surprised if it were left off the list tomorrow in favor of wall-e which people seem to be flipping out over a lot more.

as far as the rest of the races go, i wouldn't be surprised if there were at least a few surprises in the acting awards as well. who's at risk of being left off? the best supporting actor noms seem to be down to ledger, robert downey jr., philip seymour hoffman, josh brolin and dev patel, but i think the last two men are vulnerable. it wouldn't be an absolute shock to see patel left off in favor of brad pitt from burn after reading or milk's james franco. the supporting actress awards are likely to go to the doubt ladies, penelope cruz, kate winslet and marisa tomei. but tomei could always be swapped for taraji p. henson. the actors are expected to be frank langella, rourke, penn, pitt and jenkins, and there isn't likely to be a surprise here, but i honestly think that langella could be at risk, maybe to be replaced by the overwhelmingly deserving clint eastwood. and the actresses will probably consist of winslet, streep, hathaway, sally hawkins and jolie. but jolie's spot is likely one of the most open in the acting races. it could easily go to melissa leo.

in an ideal world, here are three things i would love to happen tomorrow (varying widely in probability)

1. (likely)- amy adams for best supporting actress for doubt. out of nowhere she gives the best performance in the film i think, and i am worried she will be overlooked in favor off viola davis' more flashy screen appearance.

2. (less likely)- clint eastwood and leonardo dicaprio for best actor. these are probably two of the best performances overall given this year, and they are both in grave danger of being left off the slate.

3. (not gonna happen) curious case snubbed for best pic. revolutionary road in.

we'll see what happens. fingers crossed.
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