05 March 2010
  oscar predictions. . .

seem to be a superfluous exercise at this point, but here they are anyways.

supporting actor:
will win. . . christoph waltz. this doesn't really make much sense to me, as i think his performance was pretty over-the-top, but people seem to like it i guess.
should win. . . stanley tucci, but not for the lovely bones. he is definitely the male actor of the year with two acclaimed performances, and he should be winning his first oscar for the better of the two, his terrific performance as paul child in julie & julia.
my five. . . stanley tucci, nicholas hoult (a single man), steven lang (avatar), matt damon and alfred molina (an education)

supporting actress:
will win. . . mo'nique. it's not a perfect performance, but an affecting one definitely. at times, she can be a little over the top and definitely at times, you can tell that she's acting, but it's okay. she still gives the best acting performance of the year.
should win. . . mo'nique, although in a weaker year for the category, rosamund pike's performance in an education would be oscar-worthy as well. her performance is the complete opposite of mo'nique's, but almost as great.
my five. . . mo'nique, rosamund pike, julianne moore (a single man), marion cotillard (nine) and penelope cruz (nine).

will win. . . jeff bridges. this isn't the greatest performance of his career, but he has done consistently good work, and i am happy to see him finally get rewarded.
should win. . . jeff bridges. i consider this the weakest of the acting categories, even though bridges definitely does good work in crazy heart. i still don't see his performance as THAT much better than daniel day lewis in nine or morgan freeman in invictus.
my five. . . jeff bridges, daniel day lewis, morgan freeman, joseph gordon levitt (500 days of summer) and jeremy renner (the hurt locker)

will win. . . sandra bullock. i love sandra bullock. i love the blind side. i think she is good in the blind side. with that being said, PLEASE don't give the oscar to sandra bullock. as an actress she isn't even in the same league as any of the other women in this category. she just doesn't deserve it.
should win. . . meryl. she gave two great performances this year, and should finally win her third oscar for her role as julia child in julie & julia. i know she is constantly being recognized, and the other ladies deserve some love too, but this is the oscars and we should be rewarding the most worthy *immediately breaks down in fits of laughter*
my five. . . meryl streep, hilary swank (amelia), saorsie ronin (the lovely bones), drew barrymore (grey gardens), jessica lange (grey gardens)

will win. . . kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker. so this year has given us a onslaught of good, acclaimed films by women, people of color and the gays. it seems like it's finally time to award this statue to someone other than a white man. that being said. . .
should win. . . james cameron, avatar. when cameron loses this award i think it will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the single greatest mistakes the academy has ever made. avatar is a masterpiece of directing. criticize the acting. criticize the screenplay. criticize the music. but you cannot criticize the direction. this is the best achievement in film direction in the last ten years (at least)
my five. . . (and again i'd really like to put some women and gays in here, but) james cameron, lars von trier (antichrist), clint eastwood (invictus), joel and ethan coen (a serious man) and quentin tarantino (inglourious basterds)

original screenplay:
will win. . . mark boal, the hurt locker. there are a lot of nice things about this movie, but the screenplay isn't one of them. it's an action movie, and there isn't even a whole lot of dialogue. this is a huge bandwagon mistake.
should win. . . joel and ethan coen, a serious man. i can't honestly say that i loved this movie, but it is definitely the best written film of the year. an immensely clever, superbly crafted screenplay. i would LOVE to see an upset here.
my five. . . the coen brothers, james cameron, quentin tarantino, lars von trier, scott neustadter and michael weber (500 days of summer)

adapted screenplay:
will win. . . jason reitman and sheldon turner, up in the air. ho hum. who really cares. it's an okay screenplay and an okay film, but in a year nobody will even remember it.
should win. . . of four of the five that i've seen, i don't think any of the nominated screenplays are oscar-worthy (i haven't yet seen in the loop). that being said, i am going WAY out on a limb here to argue that the year's true greatest adapted screenplay, is that written by michael sucsy and patricia rozema for grey gardens. i've chosen to just ignore that it isn't eligible for academy awards. it is a superbly written work. there's nothing more to say.
my five. . . michael sucsy and patricia rozema, anthony peckham (invictus), jason reitman and sheldon turner (up in the air), christopher hampton (cheri) and michael tolkin and anthony minghella (nine).

will win. . . the hurt locker, although i would love to see an upset. not a bad movie, but waaaay overrated.
should win. . . avatar is unequivocally the greatest movie of the year.
my five (i am sick of the ten. there aren't ten best picture-worthy movies this year. get over it). . . avatar, capitalism: a love story, grey gardens, invictus and (500) days of summer.
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