24 March 2011
2011 oscar predictions: year in advance
i've never attempted to do such a thing as a) it's a particularly ridiculous thing to do; b) we don't even know for sure what's going to be released this year (how many people were predicting tree of life to be an awards contender in march of last year?); and c) i am pretty much prediction-ed out at this time of year. still, a lot of the first predictions for 2011 have started trickling out lately, and i suppose it will be pretty fun to look back on this post in a year and see if i got anywhere close. so, that being said, and please take this with a gigantic grain of salt, this is what i could see happening next february:
supporting actor:
the nominees- vincent cassell (dangerous method), daniel craig (girl with the dragon tattoo), paul dano (meek's cutoff), john c. reilly (we need to talk about kevin) and christopher plummer (the girl with the dragon tattoo)
the winner- daniel craig. i'm not sure if he will be going lead or supporting for this, but i think it will be in his best interest to go supporting. i could see christopher plummer winning in this category as well if he is any good (in dragon tattoo or his other film, beginners).
supporting actress:
the nominees- jessica chastain (tree of life), viola davis (the help), vanessa redgrave (coriolanus), saorsie ronan (hanna) and octavia spencer (the help)
the winner- jessica chastain. i don't know if she has even been in a movie up until this point, but she has a couple high profile roles this year, and everyone is expecting her to be a scene stealer (in tree of life, particularly). i think she is going to be in a tough race against vanessa redgrave, however, who already has solid rave reviews for her role in coriolanus.
actor:
the nominees- george clooney (the descendants), ralph fiennes (coriolanus), jeremy irvine (war horse), viggo mortensen (dangerous method), brad pitt (tree of life)
the winner- brad pitt. i think academy voters are likely to see him as "due" and if this movie actually turns out to be good and if he is any good in it at all, i think this is going to be his statue to lose. of course, there is definitely the possibility that either george clooney or viggo mortensen gives a performance that is just so sensational that it can't be denied.
actress:
the nominees- glenn close (albert nobbs), rooney mara (girl with the dragon tattoo), freida pinto (miral), meryl streep (the iron lady) and tilda swinton (we need to talk about kevin)
the winner- meryl streep. after losing her much deserved oscar last year to sandra bullock, i think that the next time she is nominated she will win in an absolute landslide. she is waaay overdue for another one, and she is bound to give a fantastic turn as margaret thatcher. that being said- i expect this movie to kind of suck, so you never know. glenn close could be hot on her heels, but something tells me her star has dimmed now that she is a tv actress. she would need to be amazing.
director:
the nominees- david cronenberg (dangerous method), david fincher (girl with the dragon tattoo), terrence malick (tree of life), julian schnabel (miral) and steven spielberg (war horse)
the winner- spielberg. i definitely have this early sinking feeling that the director race is really going to irritate me this year. there is bound to be some amazing direction on the horizon, but i can see this coming down to a spielberg/fincher race, and i am definitely not a fan of either one. spielberg's been absent for a couple years, and i can see the academy falling over themselves to give him another one.
best picture:
the nominees- the conspirator, coriolanus, dangerous method, the girl with the dragon tattoo, the help, hugo cabret, miral, the muppets, the tree of life, war horse
the winner- war horse. it's gonna suck. period. i realize that i sound like i'm closed minded to spielberg's upcoming "opus," and honestly i'm not. if it's a great movie, i will say that it's a great movie. but face it. it's gonna suck. and yes, i did put the muppets on my best picture list. there is bound to be a surprise, and with the pixar slot seemingly up for grabs this year, i am going out on a limb on this one. if, in a year, the muppets gets nominated for an oscar i can say that i was the first person to have predicted it. ¶ 3/24/2011 09:47:00 PM
i've never attempted to do such a thing as a) it's a particularly ridiculous thing to do; b) we don't even know for sure what's going to be released this year (how many people were predicting tree of life to be an awards contender in march of last year?); and c) i am pretty much prediction-ed out at this time of year. still, a lot of the first predictions for 2011 have started trickling out lately, and i suppose it will be pretty fun to look back on this post in a year and see if i got anywhere close. so, that being said, and please take this with a gigantic grain of salt, this is what i could see happening next february:
supporting actor:
the nominees- vincent cassell (dangerous method), daniel craig (girl with the dragon tattoo), paul dano (meek's cutoff), john c. reilly (we need to talk about kevin) and christopher plummer (the girl with the dragon tattoo)
the winner- daniel craig. i'm not sure if he will be going lead or supporting for this, but i think it will be in his best interest to go supporting. i could see christopher plummer winning in this category as well if he is any good (in dragon tattoo or his other film, beginners).
supporting actress:
the nominees- jessica chastain (tree of life), viola davis (the help), vanessa redgrave (coriolanus), saorsie ronan (hanna) and octavia spencer (the help)
the winner- jessica chastain. i don't know if she has even been in a movie up until this point, but she has a couple high profile roles this year, and everyone is expecting her to be a scene stealer (in tree of life, particularly). i think she is going to be in a tough race against vanessa redgrave, however, who already has solid rave reviews for her role in coriolanus.
actor:
the nominees- george clooney (the descendants), ralph fiennes (coriolanus), jeremy irvine (war horse), viggo mortensen (dangerous method), brad pitt (tree of life)
the winner- brad pitt. i think academy voters are likely to see him as "due" and if this movie actually turns out to be good and if he is any good in it at all, i think this is going to be his statue to lose. of course, there is definitely the possibility that either george clooney or viggo mortensen gives a performance that is just so sensational that it can't be denied.
actress:
the nominees- glenn close (albert nobbs), rooney mara (girl with the dragon tattoo), freida pinto (miral), meryl streep (the iron lady) and tilda swinton (we need to talk about kevin)
the winner- meryl streep. after losing her much deserved oscar last year to sandra bullock, i think that the next time she is nominated she will win in an absolute landslide. she is waaay overdue for another one, and she is bound to give a fantastic turn as margaret thatcher. that being said- i expect this movie to kind of suck, so you never know. glenn close could be hot on her heels, but something tells me her star has dimmed now that she is a tv actress. she would need to be amazing.
director:
the nominees- david cronenberg (dangerous method), david fincher (girl with the dragon tattoo), terrence malick (tree of life), julian schnabel (miral) and steven spielberg (war horse)
the winner- spielberg. i definitely have this early sinking feeling that the director race is really going to irritate me this year. there is bound to be some amazing direction on the horizon, but i can see this coming down to a spielberg/fincher race, and i am definitely not a fan of either one. spielberg's been absent for a couple years, and i can see the academy falling over themselves to give him another one.
best picture:
the nominees- the conspirator, coriolanus, dangerous method, the girl with the dragon tattoo, the help, hugo cabret, miral, the muppets, the tree of life, war horse
the winner- war horse. it's gonna suck. period. i realize that i sound like i'm closed minded to spielberg's upcoming "opus," and honestly i'm not. if it's a great movie, i will say that it's a great movie. but face it. it's gonna suck. and yes, i did put the muppets on my best picture list. there is bound to be a surprise, and with the pixar slot seemingly up for grabs this year, i am going out on a limb on this one. if, in a year, the muppets gets nominated for an oscar i can say that i was the first person to have predicted it. ¶ 3/24/2011 09:47:00 PM
